After a long "cold winter", many photovoltaic companies in China have experienced a period of "big waves and sands", and the surviving companies are slowly recovering. At present, is there any “sequelae” of the phased overcapacity? How can enterprises innovate forever? What are the future prospects of the photovoltaic industry? At the Boao Forum for Asia 2016 annual meeting held here, participating PV companies fought over this.

 

Beginning in the second half of 2011, with the overcapacity of photovoltaic capacity leading to a vicious price war, the European debt crisis has slowed the market growth rate, and the market uncertainty caused by the "double anti" tariffs in Europe and the United States. It has profoundly changed the pattern of China's photovoltaic industry.

 

For surviving companies, is there still an excess of production capacity? Once this question was thrown out, Gao Jifan, chairman and chief executive officer of Trina Solar Co., Ltd. gave his opinion, "this issue should be treated differently."

 

According to Gao Jifan, the supply-side reform is actually two aspects. One is to remove some inefficient and low-level capacity, and the other is to be able to create or provide some capacity that can better and better meet customer demand. The latter is fundamental.

 

Gao Jifan believes that the current market demand is still in an average annual growth rate of about 15%. In the next five years, although the module production capacity may be about 80G watts, the solar cell and silicon wafer production capacity is actually 60G watts to 70G watts. The production capacity of some high-quality products such as high-efficiency batteries only accounts for about 50%, which means that some high-performance products are actually in a state of short supply.

 

Participants believed that high-quality and high-level products will continue to have strong demand in the future, but some low-end products may be gradually phased out. This will be the norm in the future. The Chinese market may be in a relatively stable development in the next five years. stage.

 

Jin Jing, vice president of JinkoSolar, said that at any stage, appropriate supply exceeds demand is conducive to the development of the industry, otherwise customers will have no choice. "Speaking of overcapacity, but is demand really released? I don't think it has yet. The renewable energy ratio targets proposed by various countries are far from being achieved." Qian Jing said that in terms of supply, the country needs some industry guidance, standards, and technology. The upgrade requires supporting high-quality production capacity and eliminating low-quality production capacity.

 

The "cold winter" experienced by photovoltaic companies has brought some "haze" to the industry, forcing the industry to innovate to a certain extent. In recent years, China's photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly under the driving of innovation, and has become an industry that can simultaneously participate in international competition and obtain certain competitive advantages. Backbone photovoltaic enterprises have mastered and reserved a number of leading technologies in the photovoltaic industry through technological advancement, while continuously improving photovoltaic cell conversion efficiency while reducing costs, establishing a leading advantage in the international market.

 

Photovoltaic company Yingli Group previously revealed that relying on the four national R & D platforms including the “State Key Laboratory of Photovoltaic Materials and Technology” and “National Energy Photovoltaic Technology Key Laboratory”, it has undertaken a large number of national science and technology plan projects, which has improved photovoltaic cell efficiency and reduced The cost of photovoltaic power generation has been increased, and the company's vitality and competitiveness have been enhanced through the implementation of "double innovation" activities. It has applied for more than 2,000 patents, ranking first in the photovoltaic industry.

 

It is understood that by the end of 2015, Yingli had applied for 13 PCT international patents, 2006 Chinese patents, and 1512 patents such as "a solar cell grid line electrode and solar cell sheet", which ranked first in the industry. Chief editor and co-author of 72 international, national and industry standards, undertaking national 973 projects "Research on Key Issues in High-Efficiency Crystalline Silicon Solar Cell Technology", and 863 Project "Effective Key Technologies and Technologies for the Crystallization of Solar Cells with a New Electrode Structure of 20% Efficiency and More" "Demonstration Production Line" and other 23 national science and technology projects, 108 provincial and municipal science and technology projects.

 

Relying on a complete three-dimensional innovation system, Yingli has created a number of internationally leading research results. The efficiency of the "Panda" double-sided battery has reached 21.5%, and the power generation is 30% higher than that of conventional components. The new silane method polysilicon technology has broken the technological monopoly of foreign electronic grade high-purity silicon; the high-efficiency long-life magnetic suspension flywheel energy storage technology has occupied the international The frontier has filled the blank of this technology field in China. Grass-roots innovations of more than 5,500 first-line employees such as "Zhao Huali" power test connectors have also emerged in Yingli. At the 2012 and 2013 Yingli Technology Innovation Expo, 80% of the innovations came from the hands of front-line employees, which can produce every year. Economic benefits of more than 4 billion yuan.

 

The consensus in the industry is that reducing the cost of photovoltaic power generation not only depends on scale effects, but also the fundamental driving force is technological innovation. Since its establishment, Trina Solar's State Key Laboratory of Photovoltaic Science and Technology has set the world record for photovoltaic cell conversion efficiency and module output power 10 times, undertaking 2 national 973 plans, 5 national 863 plans, and various other scientific research projects. More than 40 items.

 

In the cold winter of the industry, Trina Solar looks like a “cat winter” in the production and operation of its peers. In fact, it has quietly completed “slimming and strengthening”, and its product quality, new product research and development, brand effect, and scientific research strength have significantly improved. When the Chinese photovoltaic industry returned to the rising channel in the second half of 2013, Trina Solar became one of the first few photovoltaic companies to turn a profit and show a strong development momentum. In 2014, the company became the world's largest supplier of photovoltaic modules with shipments of up to 3.66 GW, and continuously launched high-end products such as Smart modules and "dual glass" modules. In 2015, Trina Solar once again became the leader in the photovoltaic industry to promote 1500 volt high voltage photovoltaic modules. In the field of downstream photovoltaic power generation, Trina Solar has become a first-class system integrator and plays the role of a pioneer in the field of smart energy.

 

By this year, the price of Trina Solar's photovoltaic modules has dropped to about 3.8 yuan per watt, and the cost of photovoltaic power stations has been about 9 yuan per watt, which are only equivalent to 12.7% and 18% of the company's participation in Tibet's "non-electricity rural power supply project". , The cost of electricity dropped to 0.8 yuan to 1.1 yuan. In the western part of China, photovoltaic power has become affordable power at the user side of industrial and commercial power. In the future, photovoltaic power generation will be further reduced, and it is expected that by 2020, costs will be reduced by about 50%.

 

Gao Jifan revealed that when Trina Solar was involved in Tibet's "No-Electricity Rural Power Project" more than a decade ago, the price of photovoltaic modules exceeded 30 yuan per watt, and the cost of photovoltaic power stations was more than 50 yuan per watt. Such an expensive price can only be afforded by a small number of Chinese talents with state funding. However, China also has a large number of villages and households without electricity, mainly in remote areas where large power grids are difficult to extend. To solve the problem of electricity consumption for this part of the population without electricity, distributed photovoltaic power generation has natural advantages, but it must significantly reduce power generation costs.

 

Gao Jifan realized that in the photovoltaic industry, whoever can achieve low cost, who can make solar energy benefit humanity, who has a strong competitive advantage. At the time, he believed that the biggest space to reduce the cost of photovoltaics was in the production of photovoltaic products. Photovoltaic companies must extend and expand into the manufacturing field and seize market opportunities.

 

At present, in addition to cost issues, Trina Solar is also actively deploying energy storage, Internet + and other aspects, eventually making photovoltaic power an ordinary citizen (46.330, -2.76, -5.62%) as soon as possible clean energy. "Our vision for 2025 is to be a leader in the field of smart solar energy," said Gao Jifan.

 

Qian Jing believes that after the cold winter is spring, now is the "spring" of the photovoltaic industry. At the Paris Climate Conference last year, nearly 200 countries around the world reached a consensus for the first time: promoting emissions reductions. The core of emission reduction is to reduce coal combustion. 70% to 80% of coal combustion is used for power generation. Finding another alternative energy is the key to solving the problem. This key is photovoltaic, photovoltaic is the mainstream energy, and gas power is the peak shaving energy The match will be the ultimate energy of human beings. "So, the spring of photovoltaics is quietly beginning."